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    气象大模型在农业应用中的研究进展

    A Survey of Large Meteorological Models in Agricultural Applications

    • 摘要: 近年来,深度学习在气象预测与气候建模中的应用取得了显著进展,并在农业气象服务中展现出重要价值。尽管已有综述文章对相关方法进行了系统梳理,但多聚焦于模型架构或应用场景,尚缺乏从农业视角出发的系统总结。本文聚焦气象大模型(Large Meteorological Models,LMMs)的技术演进与应用实践,围绕模型结构建立分类体系,系统回顾传统数值方法与深度学习架构的发展脉络。根据建模范式的不同,本文将主流方法归纳为六大类:经典深度神经网络、图神经网络、Transformer 架构、状态空间模型、生成式模型以及物理引导与多模态融合模型,并进一步梳理了典型模型在农业场景中的应用,包括农业气象预报、极端天气预警、防灾减灾及精准农业决策支持等关键任务。此外,本文还汇总了常用数据集与评估指标,分析当前气象大模型在泛化能力、不确定性建模与物理一致性方面的挑战,并展望了未来研究的关键方向。本文旨在为LMMs在农业场景中的深入研究与应用提供系统性参考。

       

      Abstract: In recent years, deep learning has achieved remarkable progress in meteorological forecasting and climate modeling, exerting a growing influence on agricultural applications. While numerous review articles have systematically examined related methodologies, most focus on model architectures, task types, or application domains, with limited attention given to the agricultural perspective. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the development of Large Meteorological Models (LMMs), structured around model architecture. We trace the evolution from traditional numerical methods to deep learning approaches and categorize existing models into six major classes: classical deep neural networks, graph neural networks, Transformer-based architectures, state space models, generative models, and physics-informed/multimodal fusion models. Furthermore, we summarize representative applications of LMMs in agriculture, including meteorological forecasting services, extreme weather early warning and disaster mitigation, and decision support systems for precision agriculture. We also examine commonly used datasets and evaluation metrics in the field. This is followed by a discussion of current challenges, particularly in areas of generalization capability, uncertainty quantification, and physical consistency. Finally, we outline key research directions for future exploration in this rapidly evolving field. This work aims to provide a systematic reference for advancing both the research and application of LMMs in agricultural contexts.

       

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