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    基于小波分解与多尺度分块混合的多元时序预测

    Wavelet Decomposition and Multi-Scale Patch Mixing for Multi-Variate Time-Series Forecasting

    • 摘要: 现有预测方法难以自适应捕捉并融合时序数据的复杂动态模式,针对这个问题,提出了一种基于小波分解与多尺度分块混合(wavelet decomposition and multi-scale patch mixing,WDMPM)的多元时序预测方法。首先利用离散小波变换将序列显式分解为多分辨率分支,并设计并行多分支架构,依次通过预处理卷积、注意力加权的多尺度分块嵌入以及双层Mixer模块,实现特征增强与交互。此外,还引入补丁结构感知损失,以保持预测序列结构的一致性。最后,在6个公开时序数据集上进行的实验结果表明,提出的WDMPM在3个数据集上均取得了最佳预测性能,在另一个数据集上取得了次佳预测性能,且计算效率显著优于现有主流时序预测方法。

       

      Abstract: Existing forecasting methods often struggle to adaptively capture and fuse the intricate dynamic patterns within multivariate time-series data, especially when faced with multi-scale variations, non-stationarity, and high noise levels. To tackle this limitation, we propose a wavelet decomposition and multi-scale patch mixing (WDMPM) model for multivariate time-series forecasting. The method first explicitly decomposes each input sequence into multi-resolution components via the discrete wavelet transform, separating low-frequency trends from high-frequency details. A parallel multi-branch architecture is then adopted to process each component independently. Each branch successively adopts a pre-processing convolution module for local feature enhancement and noise suppression, an attention-weighted multi-scale patch embedding module to adaptively fuse information across different temporal scales, and a dual-layer mixer module to efficiently integrate cross-time and cross-variable dependencies. Additionally, a patch-wise structure-aware loss is introduced to preserve the statistical and correlational consistency of the predicted series, improving the model’s robustness and structural fidelity. Finally, extensive experiments on six public time series datasets demonstrate that the proposed WDMPM achieves the most advanced accuracy on three datasets, obtains the second best performance on one dataset, and exhibits substantially higher computational efficiency than the mainstream baseline methods. These results validate the effectiveness of the proposed explicit multi-scale modeling framework and its ability to balance forecasting accuracy with operational efficiency in complex real-world forecasting scenarios.

       

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