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    一种新的时间序列延迟相关性分析算法——三点预测探查法

    A New Algorithm on Lagged Correlation Analysis Between Time Series: TPFP

    • 摘要: 延迟相关性分析是时间序列数据挖掘的重要研究内容,它可以在很多领域得到应用,比如股票市场分析、天气预报、网络分析、移动对象跟踪和传感器监控等;通过实验发现和验证了时间序列延迟相关性分析中存在的3个现象,即连续分布性、延迟突变和突变幅度分布特性;证明了已有研究或者在延迟位置较大时具有较大的误差,或者无法解决延迟突变问题;根据3个实验现象,提出了三点预测探查法(three points forecast-based probing, TPFP),它可以克服已有算法的缺陷,在延迟位置较大时也可以具有较小的误差,并且可以有效处理大部分延迟突变情形.大量实验证明,三点预测探查法可以比已有方法取得更好的性能.

       

      Abstract: Lagged correlation analysis plays an important role in data mining based on time series, which can be used extensively in real life such as weather forcast, stock market analysis, network analysis, moving object tracking, sensor monitoring, and so on. Lagged correlation analysis is to find out the time series which are correlated with lags. Here three phenomena in lagged correlation analysis between time series, namely, continuous distribution of lags, lag mutation and mutation amplitude distribution feature, are found based on extensive experiments. It is proved that existing research work can achieve desirable performance when the lag is small, but there is sometimes large error when the lag is large. Furthermore, available methods can not deal with the occasion of lag mutation, which means that the lag changes suddenly at certain point on the lag correlation curve and is much different from before. This brings many difficulties for those existing methods. Based on the above three phenomena, three points forecast-based probing (TPFP) is proposed here to overcome the disadvantages of the existing methods, which is able to achieve small error when the lag is large, and also it can perform well on the occasion of lag mutation. Extensive experiments show that TPFP can achieve better performance than available methods.

       

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